PM may delay Commons vote on EU withdrawal

The Sunday Times today have an article saying thst PM Theresa May could postpone the planned vote in the House of Commons on Tuesday 11 December in a attempt to sweeten the bid and deal after additional discussions with the European Union. Personally I would not rule out anything ag this dtage, but I do think that changing content in the deal at this late moment will be tricky and really difficult.

The article says that Theresa May will seek to emulate Margaret Thatcher by travelling to Brussels to demand a better Brexit deal in a last-ditch attempt to save her government from collapse.

Ministers and aides have convinced the prime minister that she needs “a handbag moment” with EU bosses if she is to have any chance of persuading her own MPs to support her.

They expect May to announce tomorrow that she will launch a final throw of the diplomatic dice with a dash to Brussels, a move that could result in Tuesday’s vote being postponed.

Senior ministers bombarded the prime minister with warnings yesterday that she has to look like she is fighting for a deal that Brexiteers can support — or face a catastrophic defeat that could lead to Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister by Christmas. One senior cabinet minister said: “People in No 10 think she needs to have a ‘handbag moment’ where she says: ‘Up with this I will not put.’”

But The Sunday Times can reveal that even as she makes a final appeal to the EU, some of her most trusted ministers are already planning for a new referendum.

May’s deputy, David Lidington, and the justice secretary, David Gauke, have been in talks with Labour MPs to gauge whether there is a Commons majority for a second referendum or a Norway-style deal inside the single market if May’s mission fails. Allies say they have concluded that MPs are now most likely to back a “people’s vote”, piling pressure on the prime minister to achieve concessions that would get rebel MPs behind her plan.

Civil servants have war-gamed two versions of a new vote. The first would feature a choice between May’s deal and remain. The second would see voters asked to choose between leave and remain with a second question asking them, in the event of a leave win, whether they prefer the existing deal or a no-deal departure on World Trade Organisation terms.

Details of the prime minister’s “Maggie May” mission come as Tory whips learnt that a “swarm” of ministers is set to resign over Brexit. Last night, Will Quince, the Brexiteer and parliamentary aide to the defence secretary, Gavin Williamson, said he was quitting. He said the deal contained a “fatal element” that would lock Britain in the backstop for years. “I do not want to be explaining to my constituents why Brexit is still not over and we are still obeying EU rules in the early 2020s or beyond.”

A minister told The Sunday Times that he would quit and back a new referendum if the vote went ahead, one of three ministers set to support a people’s vote. At least two Brexit-backing ministers and two members of the whips office are also on the verge of resigning.

The defence minister Tobias Ellwood signalled that he was ready to back a referendum, warning that the “sell-by date” on the 2016 vote was about to expire.

Ellwood told The Sunday Times he would back May’s deal if there was a vote on Tuesday, saying it was his “democratic duty” to his leave-supporting constituents. But he added: “If parliament does not agree a Brexit deal soon, then we must recognise that the original mandate to leave, taken over two years ago, will begin to date and will, eventually, no longer represent a reflection of current intent.”

A final decision about whether to postpone the vote will be made tomorrow but a cabinet minister said: “I would be very surprised if that was not the outcome.”

May will seek a concession from the EU on a time limit or exit clause to the Irish backstop, which locks Britain into a customs union with the rest of the EU. Officials admit that will be very difficult.

“The prime minister is listening,” a senior cabinet minister said. “We have heard the MPs loud and clear. They want to vote for the deal but they have one big issue with it, which is the backstop. They want to see us fight for it.” Julian Smith, the chief whip, and Williamson, his predecessor have both warned May that she risks disaster if she lets the vote go ahead without one final push in Brussels.

A source said: “Julian’s view is that we have to win. Winning is everything. We have to get the deal over the line. Every other option leads to chaos.”

A senior government source cautioned that MPs should not get “unrealistic expectations” about what is possible when the European Commission has said the current deal is its best offer.

In an attempt to win over the rebels — who number more than 100 — Tory whips have told MPs that May will resign next spring after Brexit if they help her to win now. They are also warning they could “cancel Christmas” to try to force the Brexit deal through.

If the government loses both the meaningful vote and a no-confidence motion, under the rules of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, they would have 14 days to win a vote of confidence or Corbyn would be able to visit the Queen at Sandringham over the festive season to be asked to form a government.

Whips are warning that the government would call a confidence vote every day and would keep going until they won — even if that meant MPs had to spend the holiday season in Westminster.

Last night May took aim at her party rebels in a newspaper interview. “If you want Brexit, make sure you get it, and that’s about this deal. When I say if this deal does not pass we would truly be in uncharted waters, I hope people understand this is what I genuinely believe and fear could happen,” she told The Mail on Sunday.

“We have a leader of the opposition who thinks of nothing but attempting to bring about a general election, no matter what the cost to the country.

“I believe Jeremy Corbyn getting his hands on power is a risk we cannot afford to take.”

May also faces a blazing row in cabinet this week over preparations for no deal. Ministers including Jeremy Hunt, Liz Truss, Chris Grayling and Andrea Leadsom are expected to demand that May prepares for a “managed no deal”.

A senior figure in the DUP warned last night that May must go to Brussels and seek an end to the backstop. “If the PM said she wasn’t going to go back to Brussels and seek a change . . . we might say to the Conservative Party that we can’t work with this prime minister and therefore we are putting the confidence and supply arrangement on hold,” the source said.

Two former Tory leaders warned that May could be out of a job by the end of the week unless she can secure changes to the backstop. Writing in The Sunday Times today, Iain Duncan Smith says that signing up to the Irish backstop plan, from which Britain could not legally extricate itself without EU approval, “would be like firing an arrow deep into the beating heart of Britain”.

Michael Howard said: “She will have very difficult decisions to make about her future and the future of the country.”

Source: The Sunday Times