Lars Karlsson: CapacityNow

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Nearly half the world’s adults have a smartphone and although there is still a significant gap between developed and developing countries, the gap is closing rapidly. 

There are more people having access to a smartphone than to clean water. This is naturally insane, but still the way it is. However, the access is still not equal in geographical terms. 

A Pew Research Center analysis based on a survey of 40 nations puts global adult smartphone ownership at 43%.

Sales of smartphones are booming, with more than 1.4 billion sold in 2015 and the figure is expected to be higher still this year. However there is still a significant divide between developed and developing countries.

Richer economies still have a higher level of smartphone ownership, with South Korea coming top with 88% of people owning a smartphone. The Nordic countries, not surveyed in this specific report, have even higher numbers (91-95%). 

Of major regions, the United States came top with 72%, followed by Europe (60%) and the Middle East (57%.), Less than half (43%) of Latin Americans have a smartphone.

In Asia/Pacific more people own a mobile phone than a smartphone, and in Africa less than one in five people use a smartphone.

The smartphone digital divide is clear, with a difference of 84 percentage points between the country with the most smartphone owners, South Korea, and the country with the least – Ethiopia at 4%.

Pew notes that here is a strong correlation between country wealth and smartphone ownership, which corresponds with the digital divide for internet connectivity.

Of major regions, the United States came top with 72%, followed by Europe (60%) and the Middle East (57%.), Less than half (43%) of Latin Americans have a smartphone.

In Asia/Pacific more people own a mobile phone than a smartphone, and in Africa less than one in five people use a smartphone.

The smartphone digital divide is clear, with a difference of 84 percentage points between the country with the most smartphone owners, South Korea, and the country with the least – Ethiopia at 4%.

Pew notes that here is a strong correlation between country wealth and smartphone ownership, which corresponds with the digital divide for internet connectivity.

Smartphones are more common in Europe, US, less so in developing countries   

The gap is closing rapidly. Smartphone ownership rates have skyrocketed in many countries since 2013 and the report shows just how quickly the disparity is diminishing.

Turkey has seen ownership increase by 42 percentage points, Malaysia by 34, and Brazil and Chile by 26.

In fact, in emerging and developing countries, the average figure for smartphone ownership figure has risen from 21% to 37% in just two years.

Source: WEF

A new map is being born. The world is going upside-down in the future. World trade is going through its biggest changes in many years, moving into a complicated global value chain. However this is not the only change. We will also see new export- and inport giants emerge. 

A new report from BMI Research has identified the “10 emerging markets of the future” — the countries that are set to become new drivers of economic growth over the next 10 years.
BMI estimates that these countries will cumulatively add $4.3 trillion to global GDP by 2025 — roughly the equivalent of Japan’s current economy.

The future emerging economies and their primary products for the global market:

– Bangladesh: Garments, agricultural products.

– Egypt: Natural gas, oil, fruits and vegetables, cotton.

– Ethiopia: Coffee, oilseeds, vegetables, gold.

– Indonesia: Mineral fuels, machinery parts.

– Kenya: Tea, horticultural products, coffee.

– Myanmar: Natural gas, wood products.

– Nigeria: Oil, cocoa.

– Pakistan: Textiles, rice.

– Philippines : Semiconductors and electronic products, transport equipment.

– Vietnam: Clothes, shoes, electronics.

Prinary products will in later development be replaced by more advanced and manufactored product lines and this will be the moment when these countries will enter into the new paradigm of world trade, the era of global value chains. 

In general, manufacturing and construction are the sectors that will drive the economies. BMI reports that new manufacturing hubs are set to emerge in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Pakistan, and that these countries will see particularly strong growth in exporting manufacturing industries. And construction growth is going to be widespread throughout all the countries — partly to facilitate increases in urban populations and partly to help develop the manufacturing sector.

On the other hand, extractive industries — like mining, oil, and gas — are going to play a far smaller role in driving growth than they have the past 15 years.

While it might provide bright spots for some countries, the report states, “the ubiquitous commodity-driven growth model that was derailed by the 2012-2015 collapse in commodity prices is not coming back.”

Source: WEF