Lars Karlsson: CapacityNow

Exclusive: UK hard Brexit pullout risks big fall in GDP and trade gridlock at ports, cabinet committee told.

Cabinet ministers have been given detailed warnings that the UK pulling out of the EU customs union could lead to a 4.5% fall in GDP by 2030 and the clogging up of trade through Britain’s ports.

The predictions were contained in a paper circulated at a meeting of Theresa May’s special Brexit cabinet committee, which concluded that ministers were not yet prepared to decide whether the UK should withdraw from the EU’s free trade bloc.

To stand still in trade terms after a withdrawal from the bloc, the UK would need to grow trade with its 10 largest partners outside the EU by 37% by 2030. 

The studies, by the Treasury, the thinktank NIESR and the Centre for Economic Performance and London School of Economics, predicted the effect on the British economy if the UK was to opt for a Norway-style model. That would involve remaining inside the single market but outside the customs union, within which countries set common external tariffs and so do not require customs checks.

The paper on the customs union also warned that to stand still in trade terms after a withdrawal from the bloc, the UK would need to grow trade with its 10 largest partners outside the EU by 37% by 2030. 

Ministers were also warned that some ports, including Dover and Holyhead, which handle a lot of road freight, could be seriously clogged up if there were customs checks on vehicles transporting goods.

Jonathan Roberts, head of communications at the UK Chamber of Shipping, told the Guardian that removal of customs controls in 1992 “stimulated huge growth” of trade between Britain and its EU neighbours.

He added: “£120bn of goods is transported on ferries to and from Dover alone every year, and the re-imposition of significant customs checks would cause profound traffic problems near ports and could ultimately cause a reduction in trade volumes.”

You can read the entire article here: The Guardian: Theresa May given stark warning about leaving customs union

Source: The Guardian

Research firm Gartner released its annual report this week on hype in technology, sharing which technologies are up-and-coming, which are at peak hype, and which have moved well into mainstream territory.

You probably won’t be surprised to learn that machine learning is riding the highest crest of the “peak of inflated expectations” wave. You might be surprised, though, by the technologies coming up behind it.

For those who associate the term “hype” with failure, realize that that’s what this report is bringing into focus. Instead, it highlights “the set of technologies that is showing promise in delivering a high degree of competitive advantage over the next five to 10 years,” Mike J. Walker, research director at Gartner, said in a statement.

The phases of the hype cycle, as outlined in a graph created by Gartner, are as follows: Innovation Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, and finally, Plateau of Productivity.
Basically: 

There’s a breakthrough, a flurry of press coverage touting successes, a bunch of failures that ultimately contribute to disillusionment, then people start to understand the technology more, and it goes mainstream. 

Some examples of the timeline from the report: Augmented reality is currently in the Trough of Disillusionment, and virtual reality is on its way up the Slope of Enlightenment. 

But no matter where they are on the cycle, these technologies all are important to keep on your radar, whether your business currently intersects with them or not.

Now for some technologies you might never have heard of that Gartner predicts are going to be pretty big:

1. Smart Dust
This refers to little things called “motes,” which Gartner defines in a research note for the report as “tiny wireless micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS), robots, or other devices that can detect everything from light, temperature, and pressure to vibration, magnetism, and chemical composition.” CNN put it this way in 2010: Smart dust aims to monitor everything.

2. 4-D Printing
You’ve heard of 3-D printing, the quick fabrication of three-dimensional products with a machine that essentially “prints” the products. The fourth dimension in this next-gen fabrication process is the encoding in the end product of “a dynamic capability–either function, confirmation, or properties–that can change via the application of chemical, electronic, particulate, or nanomaterials,” according to Gartner. Examples the firm offers: “printed pipe valves that can expand or contract and printed cubes that unfold.”

3. 802.11ax
What is this? It looks like a random series of numbers and letters. Will people be referring to this verbally, talking about the promise of eight-oh-two-point-eleven-ay-ex? Not unless they’re already talking about eight-oh-two-point-eleven-ay-see (802.11ac), to which 802.11ax is the successor. What we’re talking about here is technology aimed at improving performance of Wi-Fi-enabled devices and supporting a larger number of them. Development of this technology is still in early stages according to Gartner, but expect it to be important as the number of connected “Internet of Things” devices continues to grow.

These are just three items on Gartner’s list of technologies moving through the hype cycle, and the 34 technologies on the list may not include ones the firm included in past years.

Here are all the technologies in the report:

• Smart Dust
• 4-D Printing
• General-Purpose Machine Intelligence
• 802.11ax
• Context Brokering
• Neuromorphic Hardware
• Data Broker PaaS (dbrPaaS)
• Quantum Computing
• Human Augmentation
• Personal Analytics
• Smart Workspace
• Volumetric Displays
• Conversational User Interfaces
• Brain-Computer Interface
• Virtual Personal Assistants
• Smart Data Discovery
• Affective Computing
• Commercial UAVs (Drones)
• IoT Platform
• Gesture Control Devices
• Micro Data Centers
• Smart Robots
• Blockchain
• Connected Home
• Cognitive Expert Advisors
• Machine Learning
• Software-Defined Security
• Autonomous Vehicles
• Nanotube Electronics
• Software-Defined Anything (SDx)
• Natural-Language Question Answering
• Enterprise Taxonomy and Ontology Management
• Augmented Reality
• Virtual Reality

Today the first of a new generation of AEO programmes was launched at GITEX 2016 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

The deputy Ruler of Dubai launches AEO UAE

H.E. Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum launched the AEO UAE programme with his hand on an interactive AEO globe. 

The event was very popular and a huge crowd followed the proceedings. 

With Dubai Customs AEO Team

This is the most advanced and modern AEO programme in the world meeting international standards and best practices while introducing a new AEO paradigm. 

AEO UAE has a new set of innovative benefits, but also new features like AEO for transhipments and AEO performance indicators (KPI) för speed, predictability and cost. 

H.E. Ahmed Mahboob, Director of Dubai Customs and H.E. Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem Chairman and CEO Dubai Ports World.

This is a project that we are very proud of and the cooperation with Dubai Customs and UAE Federal Customs Authority has been outstanding.

GITEX 2016 is a huge technology event that attracts people from all around the world. 

Here I am testing an interactive application together with our man in Dubai, Christer Andersson. 

AEO UAE was the event of the day in spite of competition from artificial intelligence software, self-driving card, föoexiblenrobots and a the next generation of dromes. 

Ms. Eman Al-Suwaidy, excellent project owner of AEO UAE in Dubai.

The first AEO certificates will be presented at a ceremony on October 30 and the programme opens for new applications on November 1st. 

The specially made interactive AEO Globe developed by Customs was a great success.